unCONDITIONAL SURRENDER

Trump surrendered. Not Iran.

A wobbly truce kicked off the 60-day cease fire, running from June 17th. Pushing the critical discussion of nuclear weaponry and other vital issues down the road is a gift to Iran and a face-saver for Trump. He was in way over his head and desperately needed to stop a war that he undertook on his own. He found out that Iran is a wily, hardened foe,

clever beyond Trump’s reptile-brain receptors. He surrounds himself with lickspittles who tell him what he wants to hear and confirm his poor judgment.

Iran will drag out negotiations. The self-proclaiming world deal-maker got bubkes. Despite the cataclysm he induced, the status quo remains. If anything, knocking off the bearded grandpas emboldened a younger, harder cadre under the thumb of the intransigent Revolutionary Guard.

“Help is on the way,” he intoned, urging Iranians to rebel against their government. Few rose up against their rulers. Those who did were caught and imprisoned; many were summarily executed. We have lost 13 Americans to date. Iran has lost thousands to our bombs. Our country is intact; much of theirs is rubble. The nuclear stores remain.

Trump tried to re-use his Venezuela playbook. Didn’t quite work out that way. Venezuela is a weak, impoverished country with a corrupt government still in place while Maduro rots in a Brooklyn prison. Iran is a huge land that has survived for thousands of years. Trump is carrying on about our 250th and trying to get algae out of the reflecting pool.

Strait Ahead?

The Strait of Hormuz looks like a deal-breaker, closing, reopening, closing, reopening, requiring the US Navy to bring ships through, giving pause to commercial traffic; at the end of the 60 days Hormuz will still be Iran’s trump card, not Trump's.

There is the gobbledygook about a $300 billion rebuilding fund. It is not clear as to where that money will come from. Trump says it won’t be the US taxpayers. Right. Why would the very smart and very wealthy Arab nations pony up to pay for Trump’s war and (for some of them) restore an enemy?

Frozen funds will be thawed. Sanctions will be lifted. Oil will flow. We, Iran and the rest of the world need it as reserves are depleted. Americans are already paying for Trump’s war with a sharp inflationary spike hitting gas and groceries. Yes, the stock market is trading at record highs: why? Because war, in the short term, is traditionally an economic boost; defense spending is very profitable and lifts the economy. Until it doesn’t.    

Trump started this war without consulting Congress; to be fair, he is not the only president who ignored the legislature. But then he got pissed when NATO nations would not jump into his war, without at least informing, let alone consulting them, in advance. There was no emergency until he created one.

Bibi

Bibi, struggling to stay alive politically, keeps his war against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon going, with a fragile cease fire momentarily in place and frequently violated by both sides. Hezbollah is Iran’s thumb on the scale.

To Bibi and his hard-right flank, southern Lebanon is territory to be seized and kept as in the 1967 war. In the West Bank, he has the IDF condoning, when they are not actually supporting, settler violence, driving out Arabs who have lived there for generations. Armed settlers invade, kill, seize property, crops  and livestock , without compensation.

Israel will soon have an election. Bibi’s fate is uncertain. JD Vance scolded him for ingratitude -- like that would stop him. It’s just JD trying to one-up Rubio, bringing back the memory of the same tongue-lashing conferred on Ukraine’s President Zelensky in the Oval Office.

The one way to curb Bibi is to withhold or ration the financial and military support we provide and on which Israel relies. That, for sure, would rattle the Upper West Side. Relax, people. It won’t happen in a world of realpolitik. We need Israel nearly as much as they need us.

Trump started and lost a war. That is his legacy. His bloviation, bombast and bullshit just won’t cut it.

Photo: Abide.com